AUD and the RBA Hawks: Inflation and retail data support further rate hikes

At its meeting today, the Board decided to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.35 per cent. It also increased the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances by 25 basis points to 3.25 per cent. Global inflation remains very high. It is, however, moderating in response to lower energy prices, the resolution of supply-chain problems and the tightening of monetary policy. It will be some time, though, before inflation is back to target rates. The outlook for the global economy remains subdued, with below average growth expected this year and next. In Australia, CPI inflation over the year to the December quarter was 7.8 per cent, the highest since 1990. In underlying terms, inflation was 6.9 per cent, which was higher than expected. Global factors explain much of this high inflation, but strong domestic demand is adding to the inflationary pressures in a number of areas of the economy. Inflation is expected to decline this year due to both global factors and slower growth in domestic demand. The central forecast is for CPI inflation to decline to 4¾ per cent this year and to around 3 per cent by mid-2025. Medium-term inflation expectations remain well anchored, and it is important that this remains the case. The Australian economy grew strongly over 2022. The central forecast is little changed from three months ago, with GDP growth expected tweet at 10:31pm: RBA: - Inflation Is Expected to Decline This Year Due to Both Global Factors and Slower Growth in Domestic Demand. - Board Expects Further Increases in Interest Rates - Board Resolute in Its Determination to Return Inflation to Target tweet at 10:31pm: RBA: - The Central Forecast Is for CPI Inflation to Decline to 4¾ per cent This Year and to Around 3 per cent by Mid-2025 - GDP Growth Expected to Slow to Around 1½ per cent Over 2023 and 2024 - Path to Achieving a Soft Landing Remains a Narrow One tweet at 10:32pm: RBA: HOUSEHOLD BALANCE SHEETS ARE ALSO BEING AFFECTED BY THE DECLINE IN HOUSING PRICES #News #Markets #RBA #capitalhungry tweet at 10:34pm: AUD/USD spiking higher as ASX sells off post RBA announcement.