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Is a Failed Bearish Technical Signal Bullish?
By nearly any measure one chooses, the dollar is historically rich. When it does turn, it would likely be dramatic. That is what happened after the stronger-than-expected US CPI figures. However, the lack of follow-through is what one would expect if the greenback's bull move was intact. Still, we expect the dollar's super-cycle is entering a new phase. The market has practically priced in a 5.0% terminal Fed funds rate, and we suspect that it needs clear guidance from the Fed officials to take it further. In addition, with the key high-frequency US economic data points behind it, the market's attention will focus ... (full story)