The US September retail sales report is not terrible, but it doesn’t exactly instill confidence either. Headline sales came in on the softer side at 0% month-on-month versus expectations of a 0.2% increase, but the "control" group, which strips out some of the volatile series and typically better matches with broader consumer spending trends rose 0.4% MoM (consensus 0.3%) and there were some decent upward revisions. The key point though is that this nominal spending growth is not keeping pace with inflation. It implies that volume numbers are under massive pressure and recession risks are growing well before the ... (full story)