US spending strains intensify
The US September retail sales report is not terrible, but it doesn’t exactly instill confidence either. Headline sales came in on the softer side at 0% month-on-month versus expectations of a 0.2% increase, but the "control" group, which strips out some of the volatile series and typically better matches with broader consumer spending trends rose 0.4% MoM (consensus 0.3%) and there were some decent upward revisions. The key point though is that this nominal spending growth is not keeping pace with inflation. It implies that volume numbers are under massive pressure and recession risks are growing well before the ... (full story)
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tweet at 1:39pm: U.S. Treasury’s Yellen: - Seeing Swings in Capital Flows and ‘Strong Movements’ in Capital Markets - Attentive to Spillovers of Macroeconomic Tightening From Advanced Economies to the Rest of the World tweet at 1:39pm: US TREASURY SECRETARY YELLEN: INFLATION IS HIGH IN MANY COUNTRIES, AND GLOBAL GROWTH IS SLOWING. tweet at 1:49pm: US Treasury’s Yellen: - Debt Problems Growing More Acute for Low-Income Countries - One Barrier to Progress on Debt Issues Is ‘Predator’ Country China
US year-ahead inflation expectations rose in early October for the first time in seven months and the long-term outlook also crept up, a potentially worrisome development for the ...
Thank you, Professor Jackson, and thank you to the Harvard National Security Journal for the invitation to speak at this symposium. As the payment system continues to evolve rapidly and the volume of digital assets continues to grow, it is critical to ensure that we keep both the benefits and risks of digital assets in the policy conversation, including the implications for America's role in the global economy and its place in the world. My speech today focuses on exactly this issue and on an aspect of the digital asset world that is now the center of domestic and international attention—central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and how they relate to the substantial international role of the U.S. dollar.1 In January 2022, the Federal Reserve Board published a discussion paper on CBDCs to foster a broad and transparent public dialogue, including the potential benefits and risks of a U.S. CBDC.2 To date, no decisions have been made by the Board on whether to move forward with a CBDC. But my views are well known. As I have said before, I am highly skeptical of whether there is a compelling need for the Fed to create a digital currency.3 I am not a national security expert. But one area where economics, CBDCs, and national security dovetail is the role of the dollar. Advocates for creating a U.S. CBDC often assert how it is important to the long-term status of the dollar, particularly if other major jurisdictions adopt a CBDC. I disagree. As I will discuss, the underlying reasons for why the dollar is the dominant currency have little to do with technology, and I believe the introduction of a CBDC would not affect those underlying reasons. I offer this view, again, in the spirit of dialogue, knowing how tweet at 12:15pm: Fed’s Waller: I Disagree That Creating a U.S. Central Bank Digital Currency Is Important to Long-Term Status of Dollar - Don’t Think There Are CBDC Implications for the Role of the U.S. in Global Economy, Financial System tweet at 12:15pm: Fed’s Waller: Debate on CBDC Should Center on Financial Stability, Improvements to Payments System, Financial Inclusion https://t.co/Yaz6EBbcvy
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The EUR/USD losses its grip around the 20-day EMA and edges lower as the North American session progresses, amidst a firm US dollar, following the release of a US hot inflation ...
Think back to this time last year. Inflation was still “transitory”, the S&P 500 began its final bull run to 4,800, Tesla squeezed to $1,200 (pre-split), Ethereum approached ...
tweet at 3:14pm: Fed’s Bullard: - September Inflation Warrants More “Frontloading” Though Not Necessarily Higher Overall Rates - Appropriate That Rates Reach Range of 4.5%-4.75% by Year’s End, With Any Further Hikes in 2023 Being “Data Dependent” tweet at 3:15pm: Fed’s Bullard: - Current Inversion of Yield Curve a “Nominal Inversion” Involving Expected Inflation, Not Indicator of Recession Risk - “Would Not Predict” That Policy Rates Need to Hit 5%; if That Becomes Necessary It Is Because Inflation Is Not Slowing As Hoped tweet at 3:19pm: Fed's Bullard - There is potential for a soft landing given the strength of the labor market and companies reluctance to lay off people -Markets are not overly stressed, but are transitioning to higher interest rates