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Business Cycle Indicators at October’s Start
With September IHS-Markit (Macroeconomic Advisers) monthly GDP, we have the following picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee. chart Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 10/4 for NFP (blue +), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), official GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Lilac shading denotes dates associated with a ... (full story)