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The Forward View – Australia: September 2022
The release of the Q2 national accounts does not fundamentally alter our view of the economy going forward. While base effects see a small revision to 2022, we continue to see below trend growth of around 1.75% over 2023 and 2024 as the impact of the lockdown rebound ends, global growth slows and higher rates and prices begin to weigh domestically. That said, higher frequency data suggests that the economy has remained resilient through early Q3 with strength in the NAB Business Survey still evident while the labour market and consumer spending has held up. For now, the impact of rates has come through house prices, ... (full story)