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CAD—Forecast Change
We are making some further changes to our CAD forecast—a continuation of a rather painful process (for us) that reflects the CAD’s singular failure to respond to bullish impulses (such as the positive terms of trade shock that resulted from the surge in commodity prices through 2020/21) as well as the USD’s persistent strength. Meanwhile, our macro-economic views continue to reflect relative stronger growth in Canada versus the US this year and next while we now expect the BoC policy rate to peak at 3.75% in Canada this year, a little above the (revised) 3.5% forecast for the Fed’s terminal rate. You can find ... (full story)