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China’s growth rate likely to contract this quarter given latest activity data
Each activity data point for April released today was worse than expected, and only fixed asset investments were still in positive growth. This confirms our GDP forecast of a contraction in the second quarter of this year; we can blame anti-Covid lockdowns. So what about potential export order losses? And how will the yuan react this year? Our negative GDP forecast for this year is confirmed by the numbers: Let's look at how bad the Chinese economy was in April. Retail sales dived deeper to -11.1%YoY growth after a -3.5%YoY contraction in the previous month. Industrial production turned to -2.9%YoY growth from ... (full story)