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GDP Forecasts Stumble Then Take a Dive After US Retail Sales Data
After topping at 9.7% in early December, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast forecast for the 4h Quarter of 2021 drifted lower then too a dive on the latest retail sales estimates. Understanding the Numbers: 5.0% is a seemingly good quarter but 2.0% is the economic stall rate. Real Final Sales is the true bottom line number for the economy. The rest is inventory adjustment which nets too zero over time. Worse yet, a huge inventory build is underway despite falling sales. Much of this is Covid-shock. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Flop in December: Merchants have supply chain disruptions and are ordering heavily. But that ... (full story)