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2021 FX Outlook: Are we ‘Back on Track’?
The core theme of our 2021 FX Outlook, published 20 November 2020, was that we subscribed to a global recovery and a reversal of the two factors (Trump, Covid-19) that had pushed the dollar higher from 2018 to early 2020. Here’s how we phrased it at the time: ‘2021 will be the year that FX markets get back on track, as the gravitational pull of the dollar fades. We forecast the dollar to broadly decline in 2021 - generally by 5-10% against most currencies"In practice, we were looking for the dollar to reverse to levels seen in March 2018, when President Donald Trump started a trade war – confident that a large ... (full story)