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Ring! Ring! Goes the Long Bond Bell, Are You Listening?
chart The long bond is ringing a bell and the message is not inflation. Yield on the 30-year long bond fell 13 basis points today after holding pat yesterday when other yields rose across the board. chart Treasury spreads peaked around February 22. The 30-year long bond yield peaked on March 18 at 2.45%. Many thought the long bond yield was headed up, up, and away never to dip below 2.0% again. One more move like today and we will be there tomorrow, but a pause after this move seems more likely. chart The Fed has an overriding tendency to hold rates too low too long. the slope and amplitude of interest rate ... (full story)