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Thinking About December
The Fed has positioned itself in such a way that its next move seems obvious and that it will ease policy further by some means sooner than later, with sooner being the December FOMC meeting. Expectations are moving in the direction of the Fed shifting asset purchase toward the longer end of the curve. Not to be outdone, some shops are expecting the Fed to increase the pace of asset purchases. I am not terribly comfortable with this narrative yet. I could get comfortable with it under certain circumstances, but I have some nagging doubts. Here I am going to outline those doubts and hopefully provide some context for ... (full story)