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AU Leading Index gradually normalising
The components of the Index that explained the bulk of the improvement over the month were Consumer Sentiment, Unemployment Expectations and dwelling approvals. These signals are broadly consistent with Westpac’s view that growth in the September quarter will be a solid 1.8% despite an expected 4% contraction in Victoria, which accounts for around 25% of national economic activity. Our upgraded September quarter growth profile has meant a somewhat moderated pace in the December quarter from 2.8% to 2.2% as the expected recovery pace in Victoria is downgraded from 6% to 4%. These forecasts are more optimistic than ... (full story)