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FX Positioning: More signs of GBP complacency
CFTC positioning data as of 18 August highlight a lingering bearish sentiment on the USD, whose net positioning remains around 8-year lows. The main contributor in terms of weight to the aggregate USD positioning – the EUR – saw its positioning unchanged in the week 12-18 Aug, at +28% of open interest and close to the upper bound of its 5-year band. EUR/USD has been facing some downward correction after an extended rally, but we continue to see the pair’s fundamental drivers pointing at further strengthening and we, therefore, keep our 1-month target at 1.20. Looking ahead, positioning itself appears to be the ... (full story)