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Ranges may Fray, but Do You Play for the Breakout?
The US dollar was mixed last week. Sentiment appears tilted against it, but it is has not convincingly broken down. The euro continues to flirt with the $1.14 area and the Australian dollar has stalled near $0.7000. There does appear to be a more favorable reassessment of Europe and this is born out in several ways, including speculative positioning in the futures market, industry surveys of asset managers, and in the positive correlation between the returns of the euro and S&P 500 (a proxy for risk assets). European currencies have begun outperforming the other major currencies. The contrast between the US and ... (full story)