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Specter of Drawn-Out November Election Spooks Currency Traders
Traders in the $6.6 trillion-a-day global currency market are starting to contemplate the unthinkable: The possibility that the U.S. presidential election produces no clear winner, leading to protracted uncertainty. A measure of volatility in the yen -- a traditional safe haven -- shows a steep jump in price movement around election day that persists into 2021, while options contracts for both November and December are pricing in a premium versus October. That contrasts with the run-up to the 2016 election, when gauges of turmoil reflected only a temporary minor uptick in volatility as investors overlooked the ... (full story)