Forex News

Sunday marks 100 days since the war in the Middle East began, and the conflict continues to drive substantial volatility across all asset classes in every region of the world as a lasting peace deal remains elusive. Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have stagnated, with Washington and Tehran sending mixed messages on the state of peace talks and both ...

OPEC+ is set to agree on Sunday a fourth increase in oil output targets in as many months, three OPEC+ sources said, even though the U.S. war with Iran is still preventing several of the group’s members from pumping more. The war has cut oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, creating the world’s biggest-ever supply crisis, as key OPEC+ members, including ...

At International Economic Forum today, Putin says, “Any country can at any moment be deprived of access to its legitimate assets, which are placed in dollars or euros, as well as to Western financial payment infrastructure.“ That is correct. And it’s why there is global talk of dollar avoidance. But how easy is it? I am surprised by that answer because I ...

The 2-year Treasury yield jumped by 12 basis points on Friday, to 4.17%, the highest since February 2025, when it was on the way down. Back then, it was anticipating more rate cuts, which came in the fall that year, three of them. Now it’s anticipating rate hikes – multiple rate hikes. Yields reflect the summary of the vast bond market’s diverse opinions. ...

Markets are finally on the move again after weeks of consolidating, and in this SMC Outlook video I'm sharing my exact trade plan for the DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, and gold (XAUUSD) for next week. We've had a lot of sideways price action across the board, but Friday's breakout changed things, and the smart-money concepts roadmap is getting much clearer. ...

Iran launched a salvo of missiles at US allies Bahrain and Kuwait on Saturday, after renewed American strikes, drawing a furious response from the Gulf monarchies and further undermining a fragile truce. Weeks of indirect talks marked by tit-for-tat threats and sporadic strikes have failed to secure a deal to end the Middle East war or reopen the Strait of ...

There was a time when I wrote about the debasement trade constantly. But a lot has changed since last year’s massive run-up in precious metals prices and - as I flagged in a series of posts this week - gold has stopped trading like a safe haven asset ever since war with Iran began. It falls when risk aversion spikes and rallies when risk appetite recovers. ...

President Donald Trump on Friday defended the continued lack of a war-ending deal with Iran by once again trashing the prior nuclear agreement brokered by Barack Obama, his predecessor and longtime political foe. “They’ve dealt with very weak and ineffective leadership on behalf of the United States” and others “that allowed them to get away with murder,” ...

Markets are waking up to the possibility that the Fed is behind the curve in fighting inflation, with futures now pricing 41 basis points of tightening over the coming year. At present, the Fed retains an easing bias, underpinned by the view that risks to its dual mandate are skewed towards the downside for full employment rather than upside risks for ...

The war in the Middle East continues to disrupt flows from the region and helps shape risk appetites. After falling by almost 14% in the last two weeks of May, July WTI rose about 4.5% last week as there seemed to be little progress toward a resolution. The odds that Strait of Hormuz on Polymarket seem more cautionary and stable than the vagaries of the ...

Thank you for the opportunity to speak to you. The U.S. economy relies on a strong and stable banking system that extends credit to households and businesses. America's prosperity as well as the day-to-day needs of people and their efforts to plan for and build a better future depend on it. Today I want to share with you a few thoughts on the Federal ...

Two Senate Democrats on Thursday called on the Trump administration to stop the production of a 24-karat gold coin bearing President Trump’s image to commemorate America’s 250th birthday, with the lawmakers expressing concerns that some of the gold used by U.S. Mint could be traced to foreign cartels. Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) ...

U.S. forces struck Iranian coastal radar sites on Saturday after shooting down drones launched by Iran toward the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. military said, in the latest escalation complicating efforts to end the war between the two countries. The U.S. military believes the four Iranian drones were targeting regional maritime traffic, a U.S. official told ...

Canadian economic activity expanded at a ​faster pace in May and inflation pressures heated up, Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data ​showed on Friday. The seasonally ​adjusted index rose to ⁠58.2 from 57.7 in ​April, marking the highest level ​since September. The Ivey PMI measures the month to month variation in ​economic activity as ​indicated by a ...

Gold posted its steepest single-session decline since March on Friday, as a far-stronger-than-expected U.S. employment report all but extinguished hopes for a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut and sent the dollar surging back above a key threshold. Gold futures shed $148.00, or 3.30%, to settle at $4,353.90 — wiping out a sizable chunk of the metal's ...

Higher energy prices continue to push headline inflation up. And we do not expect to see a meaningful reprieve in the food space either, especially following recent headlines about beef prices. Our forecast for core calls for a +0.3% m/m uptick in May, which would nudge the year-over-year pace to 2.9% – well below headline but moving in the wrong direction ...

This is it. Some of the ECB’s Governing Council members are likely thinking “We’ve waited long enough. Do it!” And do it they shall… that is, raise rates on June 11. Gone are the days when the ECB was sitting comfortably, describing the Euro Area’s inflation rate and monetary policy as being “in a good place” while watching other central banks grapple with ...

My unsolicited advice to the centre-left (particularly in the U.K.) is to not reinforce the “Bond Vigilantes are more powerful than the government” narrative that characterised the post-1990 neoliberal consensus. If you are a Green Party supporter, you are likely correct that the average bond market denizen is not a fan of your favoured policies. ...

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that he sees “no point” in meeting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to discuss ending the war, dismissing a recent public appeal from Kyiv for direct talks between the two leaders. The comments came after Zelenskyy sent Putin a public letter, his first such message since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in ...

The U.S. military said it shot down four Iranian drones that were launched toward the Strait of Hormuz on Friday and then struck some of the Islamic Republic’s coastal surveillance radar sites in response, raising the risk to a shaky ceasefire as the Trump administration ramps up pressure on Iran. “The attack drones posed an immediate threat to regional ...

At the April Bank of Canada policy meeting, officials struck a dovish tone, saying they were prepared to “look through the war’s immediate impact on inflation.” Assuming a relatively swift conclusion to the conflict, “a policy rate close to current settings looks appropriate”. Six weeks on and unfortunately, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, ...

U.S. inflation data for May are due on Wednesday and could be a key piece of data ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on June 17 as investors look for clues on whether the central bank could consider raising interest rates. The data follow U.S. figures for May that showed much stronger jobs growth than expected, leaving the prospect of a rate ...

Monthly inflation in May was 1.7% versus the market consensus of 1.5%, while annual inflation inched up to 32.6% (vs the Central Bank of Turkey's target of 24% and forecast of 26% in the latest inflation report) from 32.4% a month ago. While this shows that the disinflation trend has not resumed yet, processed food, clothing and transportation services were ...

The latest Bank of England survey of UK corporates really questions the need to hike interest rates right now. Here's what it shows in four charts... charts In short, one-year-ahead CPI expectations are down, though that could be because inflation itself fell in April. And the Bank can take comfort from the fact that corporates aren't changing their ...

Another big jobs report in May has pretty much swept aside the possibility of interest rate cuts anytime soon — and in the process underscored the tricky policy path ahead for new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. The chance of rate reductions already had been on life support heading into Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. But the unexpectedly strong gain ...

BoE Gov. Bailey: Brexit shrank the size of the market.

Gold is at a technically precarious juncture, and the good news for you is that options market may be mispricing the risk. The metal is hovering near its 200-day moving average while simultaneously testing the 50% Fibonacci retracement of its prior advance, a confluence that technical traders don’t take lightly. Compounding the bearish setup, several ...

The unofficial authority on recession calls in Canada says it's too soon to use that word to describe the sluggish economy. Debate has raged on Parliament Hill over whether the country is in a recession since Statistics Canada reported last week that the economy shrank for two quarters in a row. The C.D. Howe Institute's Business Cycle Council is ...

Trump: I will leave rate cut to Warsh during October meeting. Trump: I would like to see lower interest rates. Trump: a lot of oil came out of Hormuz with US help.

The ECB is set to hike rates by 25bp on 11 June. Recent communication has effectively pre-committed markets to this outcome. A hold would come as a shock and carry significant risk for a central bank trying to avoid a repeat of the 2022 inflation crisis. As such, our four scenarios for this meeting (above) exclude anything other than a 25bp move. A 50bp ...