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April US Macro Update: Employment and Housing Rebound
It's been a noisy few months for macro. The prolonged government shutdown in December significantly delayed many data reports. Into this mess, several reports were ugly: Retail sales in December fell into yoy contraction for the first time since 2009. New employment in February fell to the lowest level since 2010. New home sales growth in November dropped 14% yoy, the lowest rate since 2011. That weakness now looks anomalous: the data from the past month mostly point to positive growth. A recession starting in 2019 is unlikely. The bond market sees continued growth. The yield curve has 'inverted' (10 year yields less ... (full story)