USD/NOK

Fed's Waller: Want markets to have as much information as possible Fed's Waller: Surprising people is not a good idea. Fed's Waller: Will Treat Another Higher Reading On Inflation As A ‘Signal, Not Noise’ - It Will Be A Useful Signal - If Inflation Comes Down In Next Reading, Will Need A Couple More That Way To See That As 'Signal'

Thank you, Yelena, and thank you for the opportunity to speak to you today. My subject is the outlook for the U.S. economy and the implications for monetary policy. Spending by households and businesses has been resilient, despite higher goods costs generated by tariffs and the surge in energy prices from the Middle East conflict. The labor market has also been stable, with employment close to the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) maximum-employment goal. So I feel the real side of the economy is in good shape. But I believe inflation and monetary policy are at a crossroads. Despite higher tariffs in 2025, core inflation held steady for most of the year. But it then began to rise in January. After the Middle East conflict disrupted production and transportation of petroleum and other commodities, this increase accelerated. Conventional wisdom among central bankers is to look through one-time price increases, such as those associated with higher tariffs and a jump in oil prices. But, at this point, I am concerned about the elevated pace of core inflation this year, which has steadily moved up—as measured by the 12-month personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rate—from 3 percent in December 2025 to 3.4 percent in May. Core inflation excludes the direct effects of consumer energy prices, and we are past the point where we can attribute large price increases to earlier tariff hikes. So, the question is, will core inflation continue on its upward trajectory, or has it reached a turning point where it will begin to decline back toward our 2 percent target? The direction it takes has very different implications for the path of monetary policy. Because core inflation is a good guide to future inflation, I am concerned that, if this upward trend continues, it will be hard to push inflation back toward the Committee's 2 percent goal with monetary policy at its current setting. As I said in a May 22 speech, I am cognizant of the mistake we made in 2021 by not responding sooner to the high inflation we observed, and I am determined to avoid repeating it.2 But the desire to avoid past mistakes is often the author of new ones. I argued in remarks on July 6 that one of the most important jobs of a policymaker is to clearly assess current economic conditions and not just rely on past experience to guide judgments of where policy should be headed.3 As I will explain, there are some crucial differences now compared with 2021, and there is still a credible case for inflation to begin to fall back to our 2 percent goal with policy at its current setting. But I am concerned about the equally plausible case that data in the coming weeks will show that inflation will remain at its elevated level or even trend higher, requiring tighter monetary policy in the near term. I am committed to returning inflation to the FOMC's 2 percent g FED'S WALLER SAYS HE IS COMMITTED TO RETURNING INFLATION TO 2% TARGET; ALSO TO AVOID OVER-TIGHTENING POLICY AND RISKING RECESSION || CONCERNED ABOUT EQUALLY PLAUSIBLE CASE THAT TIGHTER POLICY WILL BE NEEDED FED'S WALLER SAYS HE EXPECTS A DECELERATION IN HEADLINE INFLATION STARTING WITH THIS WEEK'S INFLATION DATA; BUT WILL BE FOCUSED ON CORE READING || REAL SIDE OF ECONOMY IN GOOD SHAPE WALLER SAYS HE IS DETERMINED TO AVOID REPEATING FED'S MISTAKE IN 2021; BUT LABOR MARKET NOT AS TIGHT NOW, AND INFLATION EXPECTATIONS ANCHORED || HOUSEHOLD, BUSINESS SPENDING RESILIENT DESPITE HIGHER GOODS COSTS FROM TARIFFS, ENERGY PRICE SURGE FROM MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT Waller: We’re past the point where we can attribute past increases to tariffs. “No matter how you cut it, or what measure you want to use, inflation is up this year” “Sometimes a big change in only one component of core prices can move the total significantly without reflecting…

Fed’s Bowman urges global financial watchdog to be flexible. Bowman: Modernizing Financial Regulation Good morning. It is a pleasure to join you this morning. Today, I would like to discuss the work that is currently under way in the Financial Stability Board's Standing Committee on Supervisory and Regulatory Cooperation (or "SRC") on modernizing financial regulation and supervision. Our efforts in the United States have been progressing swiftly over the past year, and most jurisdictions around the world have undertaken similar reviews of their respective regulatory and supervisory financial system frameworks. Nearly a year ago, I assumed the chairmanship of the FSB's SRC. One of the SRC's workstreams under my leadership is the FSB's efforts to establish principles to guide regulatory and supervisory modernization around the world. Today, I will outline these principles, and I will share our approach to applying them in the United States. The Purpose of Modernization and Guiding Principles I will begin by describing modernization in this context. The financial system is constantly evolving, and our regulatory and supervisory framework must keep pace. We must ensure that our framework functions effectively and efficiently, preserves financial stability and bank safety and soundness, and promotes sustainable economic growth. Four principles should guide these efforts. First, we must prioritize material financial risks—these are the risks that can impair an institution's viability and financial stability more broadly. Recent experience illustrates the danger of drifting from this principle. In the United States, we experienced the direct consequences of supervisors losing focus on material financial risks. While we continue to understand the root causes that led to the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, evidence suggests that supervisors failed to sufficiently identify, understand, and act upon the materia

Inflation in the euro area has exceeded the ECB's 2% target every year since 2021. That is surprising. In principle, a sufficiently determined central bank can always bring inflation back to target by raising interest rates. Why, then, has the ECB tolerated inflation above target for so long? Could it be that the costs of returning inflation from around 2½% ...

On CNBC Wednesday morning, I predicted that the FOMC minutes would be “much shorter and with fewer details.” Steve Liesman pushed back, arguing that the minutes are a committee document. (So is the FOMC statement, and it still got hacked in half, even deleting “maximum employment.”) In the end, the minutes came in about a fifth shorter, so I was right on ...

59% Approval Rating. Prices coming down along with the lowering of oil and gas. Thank you! President DJT

The Federal Reserve told lawmakers it "will deliver price stability" amid higher inflation in the central bank's semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress, released Friday. The semiannual monetary policy report comes as Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh is set to testify before both houses of Congress next Tuesday and Wednesday — first before the House ...

The June consumer price index (CPI) report is shaping up to be a classic head-fake for investors. When the Bureau of Labor Statistics drops its latest inflation data on July 14 at 8:30 am Eastern, market participants might see something they haven't witnessed in quite a while: A negative month-over-month headline inflation print. Look past the headline, ...

Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh has created five task forces to rethink the central bank's policymaking process. They are likely to bring outside-the-box ideas combined with intellectual chops to an often insular institution. The big picture: The task forces consist of economists and business leaders who bring serious credibility to the table but also ...

The most important line in the Federal Reserve’s July Monetary Policy Report is unusually direct: Measures of consumer price changes “began trending up last year and then stepped up further this spring.” That is a firmer characterization than simply saying inflation remains elevated. The Fed is acknowledging that the inflation picture has deteriorated, with ...