CA Core CPI m/m

This note was delayed by marketing demands but I think it’s worth advancing a thesis I don’t see well covered. We now have three reports that provide convincing evidence that a temporary soft patch on underlying inflation is being left behind. Core inflation measures picked up in May and their three-month moving averages are restoring above-2% momentum in price pressures at the margin. See charts 1–3. charts Key are the m/m annualized and seasonally adjusted (SAAR) trimmed mean and weighted median CPI measures. They provide ...

Canada's consumer prices rose 1.0% in May, lifting the headline inflation rate four ticks to 3.2%, above expectations and the highest since late 2023. A variety of food prices and travel-related costs added to the predictable jump in pump prices to drive this monthly rise, as ex-gasoline inflation picked up two ticks to 2.2%. But that's pretty much where the bad news ends, as the Bank's two main measures of core were unchanged at right around 2%, and we know that gasoline prices are on track for about a 10% drop in June, which should ...

The trading week has not been entirely favorable for the Canadian dollar in the short term, as USD/CAD has shown upward strength over the last three sessions, with a gain of around 0.3%. This indicates that US dollar strength is becoming increasingly present in the pair’s recent price action. For now, buying pressure has managed to hold despite the release of Canadian CPI data, mainly because the strength of US Treasury bonds continues to support the US dollar. If this catalyst remains in place, buying pressure around USD/CAD could ...

Yes, Canadian consumer prices rose 0.4% in April (or 0.3% in s.a. terms), lifting the headline inflation rate to 2.8% from 2.4% the prior month. The bump was driven by an 8.9% jump in gasoline prices, which we all saw coming a mile away. But the real story in today's release was how would all other prices respond to the spike in energy costs, and the news there was much better than expected. Before digging into all the messy details, one only needs to know that CPI excluding gasoline was up precisely 2.0% from a year ago, so any ...

Canadian consumer prices popped 0.9% in March, lifting the headline inflation rate to 2.4% from 1.8% the prior month. The jump was no surprise, with gasoline prices surging by a record 21.2% in the month (records dating back to 1949). Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln thought the play was just fine, as core was milder than expected, helping hold the overall inflation rate a bit below consensus expectations (we and others had it pegged closer to 2.6% for March). The Bank of Canada's two main measures of core stayed calm, with median ...