SZ SECO Economic Forecasts

The Federal Government Expert Group on Business Cycles has revised its growth forecast for Switzerland slightly downward. GDP is now expected to increase by 0.9% in 2026 – well below the historical average – followed by 1.6% in 2027 (March forecast: 1.0% and 1.7% respectively). [1] The crisis in the Middle East is driving up energy prices and weighing on the global economy. Uncertainty remains high.

The Federal Government Expert Group on Business Cycles has revised slightly downwards its forecast for economic growth in Switzerland. For 2026, it forecasts below-average growth of 1.0%, followed by 1.7% in 2027 (forecast from December 2025: 1.1% and 1.7% respectively). The war in the Middle East is driving up energy prices and further increasing uncertainty. Switzerland’s GDP rose by 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2025, after a contraction of 0.4% in the previous quarter. Overall economic development thus stabilised at the end of ...

The Federal Government Expert Group on Business Cycles has slightly revised upwards its forecast for economic growth in 2026 (GDP adjusted for sporting events: 1.1%; October forecast: 0.9%). The reduction in US tariffs has improved prospects for the sectors concerned. In 2027, growth in Switzerland is expected to normalise at 1.7% as the global economy gradually recovers. The forecast is based on the technical assumption that international tariffs will remain at current levels. However, uncertainty remains high. 2025 has been marked ...

Higher US tariffs have further clouded the outlook for the Swiss economy. Based on recently revised GDP data, 1 the Expert Group on Business Cycles projects significantly below-average economic growth of 1.3% in 2025, slowing further to 0.9% in 2026.2 This forecast reflects expectations of a weak second half of 2025 and is based on the technical assumption that international tariffs will remain at current levels. The first half of 2025 was marked by considerable volatility in foreign trade and GDP data. In Switzerland, above-average ...

The Swiss government cut its growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 on Monday, as the export-orientated economy braces itself for the impact of the global trade war. The Swiss economy, traditionally one of the most robust in Europe, is expected to grow by 1.3% in 2025, a downgrade from the government's March forecast of 1.4%. The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) also cut its forecast for 2026 growth to 1.2% from 1.6% previously, with exports expected to fall. In the first quarter of 2025, Switzerland's GDP grew more strongly than generally expected. Growth was driven primarily by the services sector and the chemical and pharmaceutical industry. Anticipatory effects related to potential US import tariffs, as observed in Ireland and Germany, among other places, likely played a role. A significantly weaker development is expected for the remainder of the year. The "reciprocal" US import tariffs introduced at the beginning of April were limited to 10% until the beginning of July; negotiations on possible trade agreements between the US and various countries are currently underway. Uncertainty regarding international trade and economic policy remains high and shapes the outlook for both the global economy and the Swiss economy. This forecast assumes that international tariffs will remain at their current level and that there will be no further escalation of the trade conflict (baseline scenario) Both figures, which were adjusted for the impact of sporting events, were below the country's long-term average growth rate of 1.8% "Uncertainty regarding international trade and economic policy remains high and is shaping the outlook for both the global and Swiss economies," SECO said. Although Switzerland had seen strong economic growth at the start of the year, this was driven largely by exporters rushing through shipments ahead of the introduction of U.S. tariffs. Swiss Gov Forecast Assumes No Further Escalation Of International Trade Conflict - 2026 CPI At 0.5% (Prev +0.6%) - 2025 CPI At 0.1% (Prev +0.3%) - 2026 GDP (Sport Event ADJ) Growth At +1.2% (Prev +1.6%) - 2025 GDP (Sport Event ADJ) Growth At (Prev +1.4%) Economic forecast: Weaker development expected, uncertainty remains high The Federal Government Expert Group on Business Cycles has revised down its forecast for Swiss economic growth. GDP adjusted for sporting events is expected to grow by 1.3% in 2025, followed by 1.2% in 2026 (March forecasts: 1.4% and 1.6% respectively). This would mean the Swiss economy growing at a significantly below-average rate in both years. The forecast assumes no further escalation of the international trade conflict. Given the high level of uncertainty, SECO has formulated two supplementary scenarios to the expert group's forecast. Swiss GDP grew more strongly than generally expected in the first quarter of 2025. Growth was driven mainly by the services sector and the chemical and pharmaceutical industry. This likely reflects front-loading effects ahead of possible US import tariffs, a phenomenon also seen in Ireland, Germany and elsewhere. Performance is expected to weaken significantly for the remainder of the year. The 'reciprocal' US import tariffs introduced at the beginning of April were limited to 10% until early July; negotiations on possible trade agreements between the US and various countries are currently under way. Uncertainty regarding international trade and economic policy remains high and is shaping the outlook for both the global and Swiss economies. This forecast assumes that tariffs will remain at current levels internationally and that there will be no further escalation of the trade conflict (base scenario).1 Under this assumption, the global economy is expected t

The Federal Government Expert Group on Business Cycles has slightly lowered its economic growth forecast for 2025 (GDP adjusted for sporting events: 1.5%; September forecast: 1.6%). The recovery of the European economy has been delayed. The international economy is not expected to normalise until 2026, at which point growth in the Swiss economy would also accelerate (1.7%).* Downside risks currently outweigh upside potential. Uncertainty surrounding international economic and trade policy is very high. In the third quarter of 2024, ...

The Federal Government Expert Group on Business Cycles continues to expect Switzerland's economic growth in 2024 to be considerably below average (GDP adjusted for sporting events: 1.2%, unchanged from previous forecast). As global economic conditions gradually improve, a moderate acceleration in growth is anticipated for 2025 (1.6%; June forecast: 1.7%).* Inflation is expected to continue to fall. Switzerland's GDP experienced marked growth in the second quarter of 2024, primarily driven by the chemical and pharmaceutical industry ...