Jackson Hole Symposium

Fed Chair Powell spoke on the “Economic Outlook and Framework Review” at Jackson Hole today. The key phrase in the economic outlook section was that “with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.” This signals that a rate cut is squarely on the table for the September 16-17 FOMC meeting. Powell reiterated that: “In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment to the downside—a challenging situation. When our ...

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s eagerly awaited speech at the central bank’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday has analysts saying an interest rate cut looks very likely in September. While he noted that tariffs are putting upward pressure on inflation, the balance of risks appears to have shifted toward a weakening economy. “With policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance,” Powell said. “Inflation had moved much closer ...

When Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday opened the door to cutting interest rates for the first time in nearly a year, he noted the tremors beginning to shake a main pillar of the U.S. economy: the labor market. Concerns about the pace of job growth were heightened earlier this month after government data showed a sharp slowdown in hiring in July, along with much weaker payroll gains in May and June than previously thought. The disappointing numbers were alarming enough for President Trump to question their accuracy and to ...

Fed Chair Powell spoke on the “Economic Outlook and Framework Review” at Jackson Hole today. The key phrase in the economic outlook section was that “with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.” This signals that a rate cut is squarely on the table for the September 16-17 FOMC meeting. Powell reiterated that: “In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment to the downside—a challenging situation. When our ...

Jerome Powell has had a change of heart. July 30th, he was saying that breakeven levels of employment are low and inflation is an issue. Two days ago, the FOMC Minutes said: “A majority of participants judged the upside risk to inflation as the greater of these two risks, while several participants viewed the two risks as roughly balanced, and a couple of participants considered downside risk to employment the more salient risk.” “Several participants noted concerns about elevated asset valuation pressures.” Today he decided that ...

Chair Powell at Jackson Hole: "Risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment to the downside—a challenging situation. He noted that when our goals are in tension like this, our framework calls for us to balance both sides of our dual mandate. Our policy rate is now 100 basis points closer to neutral than it was a year ago, and the stability of the unemployment rate and other labour market measures allows us to proceed carefully as we consider changes to our policy stance. Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive ...