US Bank Holiday

In the likes of Germany, France, Switzerland, and Austria, there will be a public holiday in observance of Whit Monday (general naming convention). However, the Euronext and Xetra bourses/platforms will be open for trading although the Swiss stock exchange will be closed. So even with some markets being open, don't expect much liquidity to feed through to broader markets today. That will make for rather exacerbated price action moves to any news or headlines. I'm not saying that the early risk-on wave in markets today may be just ...

The unemployment rate was at 4.4% in September. The unemployment rate is down from 14.7% in April 2020 (the highest rate since the Great Depression). The unemployment rate is up from 3.4% in April 2023 - and that matched the lowest unemployment rate since 1969! Even though the rate has increased recently, this is historically a low unemployment rate. Low unemployment claims: This graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Weekly claims were at 216,000 last week. The dashed line on the graph is the current ...

It’s that time of year again when families gather to feast on bountiful harvests and to give thanks for all of our blessings. This year, skip the “Vibes” and instead focus on market data. Don’t lose sight of nuances and shades of grey; they don’t make for great memes, but they do lead to a better understanding of what’s going on. Here are ten nuanced, slightly contrarian ideas for you to chew over: 1. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: Perhaps we are in the late stages of an AI-driven bubble; we could just as easily be in a ...

This week’s trading in the US has been shortened due to Thanksgiving and Black Friday. During long holidays, the market tends to behave differently. A larger effect is generally observed in the stock market, but it can also have an impact on currencies. From historical trends and a review of major market concerns, we can get a better idea of what might happen over the next couple of days. Usually, extended holiday periods like Thanksgiving are an opportunity for big institutional traders to take a break. This leads to a period of ...

Seasonality analysis often focuses on longer-term annual trends, but shorter patterns also emerge around major events and holidays. A well-known example is the equity “Santa rally” in late December. Here, we examine market performance around the US Thanksgiving holiday to identify recurring tendencies across the four-day weekend. A clear pattern emerges for the US dollar heading into Thanksgiving, with the Dollar Index posting negative average returns on the Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday before the holiday. Each of these days has a ...

Markets are off to a quiet start to a holiday-shortened week. PPI, Retail Sales, and Fed speeches will be the main event as traders look ahead to the December FOMC meeting. FOREX.com's Global Head of Research Matt Weller breaks down the key news you need to know ahead of the US Open, as well as taking a look at today’s chart of the day, EUR/USD.

The EUR/USD rebounded higher, attempting to break resistance at 1.1700, supported by U.S. inflation data and tensions between Trump and Federal Reserve officials. The pair is trying to maintain most of its gains this year as markets assess global interest rate expectations and ECB policy amid growth slowdown concerns. According to recent economic calendar data, Germany’s inflation accelerated above expectations, surpassing 2%, while inflation in France, Italy, and Spain came in weaker at 0.8%, 1.7%, and 2.7% respectively. Overall, ...

The retail price for regular-grade gasoline in the United States on May 19, the Monday before Memorial Day weekend, averaged $3.17 per gallon (gal), 11% (or 41 cents/gal) lower than the price a year ago. Thanks to the ongoing slide in oil prices, after adjusting for inflation (real terms) average U.S. retail gasoline prices going into Memorial Day weekend are 14% lower than last year, according to EIA calculations. They are in fact, lower than where they were coming into Memorial Day every year this decade except 2020, in the ...