CA Overnight Rate

Good morning. I’m pleased to be here with Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers to discuss today’s monetary policy decision. Governing Council maintained the policy interest rate at 2.25%. Since our April decision, the economic impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has increased. Higher energy prices and disruptions in global supply chains are weighing on global growth and pushing up inflation. At the same time, the US administration continues to propose new tariffs and trade policy uncertainty remains elevated. Against this backdrop, the Canadian economy has remained soft and inflation has increased. Monetary policy continues to be focused on ensuring higher energy prices do not turn into persistent inflation, while helping the economy adjust to headwinds. We are committed to keeping inflation low and stable over time. Let me expand on what we’re seeing since the April Monetary Policy Report and the monetary policy implications. The conflict in the Middle East is slowing economic activity in the Gulf region and in many oil-importing countries, and sending inflation higher worldwide. At the same time, AI-related investment is boosting growth in the United States and some Asian economies, and equity markets have been buoyant. In Canada, GDP edged down 0.1% in the first quarter, weaker than expected at the time of the April Report. Consumer spending grew by 1.4% but there was an unexpected pullback in government spending. Housing activity also declined and business investment remained weak. While the labour market strengthened in May and the unemployment rate fell to 6.6%, there has been a lot of volatility in the monthly job numbers. When you look through the bumpiness, employment in Canada is little cha BOC: There has been limited evidence so far of a broad-based pass-through of higher energy prices to other consumer prices. Bank of Canada monetary policy remains aimed at preventing higher energy costs from becoming lasting inflation: Governor Tiff Macklem For now, holding rates steady balances risks: Macklem Economic weakness and rising inflation create challenge for monetary policy: Macklem

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. The conflict in the Middle East is now in its fourth month. The resulting increases in energy prices and disruptions in global supply chains are weighing on global economic growth and pushing up inflation. At the same time, the US administration continues to propose new tariffs and trade policy uncertainty remains elevated. In the United States, economic growth remains solid, supported by consumption and AI‑related investment. In the euro area, growth is subdued, with higher energy prices weighing on activity. China’s economic growth continues to be supported by strong exports. Canadian financial conditions have loosened since the April Monetary Policy Report. Global equity markets have been buoyant and bond yields remain volatile. The Canadian dollar has weakened against the US dollar and other currencies. In Canada, GDP edged down by 0.1% in the first quarter, weaker than expected at the time of the April MPR. Consumer spending grew 1.4% but government spending unexpectedly declined. Housing activity also declined and business investment remained weak. Exports fell while imports rose strongly as inventories were rebuilt. Employment was up in May, but looking through monthly volatility, employment in Canada is little changed since the start of the year. The unemployment rate continues to fluctuate in the 6 ½%-7% range with the most recent reading at 6.6% in May. Recent data suggests that growth will resume in the second quarter but, even with some rebound, the economy is expected to remain in excess supply. As expected, CPI inflation rose in GOVERNING COUNCIL IS CONTINUING TO LOOK THROUGH MIDDLE EAST WAR'S NEAR-TERM IMPACT ON HEADLINE INFLATION - BOC || THERE HAS BEEN LIMITED EVIDENCE SO FAR OF A BROAD-BASED PASS-THROUGH OF HIGHER ENERGY PRICES TO OTHER CONSUMER PRICES - BOC ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN CANADA HAS BEEN WEAK AND UNCERTAINTY ABOUT U.S. TRADE POLICY PERSISTS - BOC || GOVERNING COUNCIL WILL NOT LET HIGHER ENERGY PRICES BECOME PERSISTENT INFLATION - BOC || EVEN WITH SOME REBOUND, ECONOMY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN EXCESS SUPPLY - BOC