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- Status:
- when dreamer meets reality
- Last Online:
- Apr 26, 2016
- Using Local Time:
- 12:12pm (12 hr ahead of you)
- Joined Forex Factory:
- Feb 2009
Input by billye
About
- Trading From:
- Shanghai, China (map)
- Occupation:
- Engineering
- Markets Traded:
- Equities, Forex
- Contracts Traded:
- Spot, Futures Options
- Favorite Trading Book:
- EURSIR's trading journal on talkforex (Amazon)
- Biography:
- I have a conviction in buffet's value investment, and I'm with a well-informed / highly educated community that exercise amateur stocks value investment for our own personal wealth management all the life-time in a professional way (every order is tracked on open, total positions tracked weekly, week after week for years, actually reality is 90% people just buy a great company, and stick to it, and hold till the rest of the life... I only did 1 sell at 2008 for the stock bubbles)
We are the informed analyzer of pro/con of every economic policy/statistic/data
as well as quantity analysis to judge the best ROI, growth rate and safety margin of alternative resource allocations and entrepreneur business plans.
ps: I also played part-time as head angel investor for worker union of our big US company in china branch, evaluation and approve/buy-off funding plans for worker union interest clubs... tens of clubs and thousands of activity/participation a year... so it's easy to tell a gold idea or a non-sense one by a 1 page idea description.
As a value investor, in most cases, we are a stand-by watch-cat of the market...
i.e. we do not hold a stake so we can be sure of a no-bias judgment.
(not really, so sometimes hold a % position of stake to hedge a built-in personal bias)
We know general traders fall by over-trading, over-leverage, fear and greedy, lack of discipline.
but we not necessarily take advantage of all that.
When doing value scalping or arbitrage, (sadly similar idea as how bucket shop trade against uninformed failing traders, but stick honest to objective reality), we look into the follow opportunities and take a few of them in a year:
i) a self-enhancing trend going to a extreme, which is deviated from fundamentals,
in most cases guided by extreme greedy or fear because of extraordinary stake attached (over leverage)
we identify that by irrationality of a uninformed/inexperience amateur 'investor' who demonstrate lack of sound reasoning against common sense
he is easily irritated by questioning of his long/short position
and runs into furies and personal attacks if you use logic, data and fact to prove his ideal against common sense
ii) we do not take every deviation, only the extreme ones and which gives enough liquidity,
say the value prediction let things move by 10%, but the real movement enhance itself to 50%,
and during the process of self-enhancement, the investor generally increase leverage to a point that all his life stake is tied to 1 deal, so his rationality gives in to greedy and fear.
Only when the market is filled 90% by these irrational buyers we see a chance to ride on market correction, we know if that is the case by sampling real-estate/stock forums and sound reasoning into a buyer decision.
iii) in none extreme cases, we evaluate the most interested cause and effects (including detective stories), and examine our calculations against reality by light position trading,
the purpose is not to prove we are foreseer of tomorrow, or to make a fortune out of guesses
but to examine and find our mistakes, practice discipline to admit and accept truth, and correct the model to more accurate to real life, this also improves the discipline of us
iv) we do arbitrage, but that only on very few and secret methods that discover and developed by self, the general uninformed public do no know of the value calculations, value deviations and how to do the cross market hedging to profit from the deviation at low risk, and they do not take advantage of those formulas.
however arbitrage in a dynamic market is still risky due to the risk knocked by a trend by chance.
so from time to time, we try arbitrage ideas by light positions, still only to practice and make perfect.
real arbitrage that is believed to be 0 risk for big liquidity can only be done 2-3 times a year which gives a 0 risk ROI beating house loan rates
We feel awesome for the market, because it gives a chance to distribute resource and money between different people and make use of them most efficiently, we do not trade blindly on random market walks, but we respect the well informed trend trader community that have solid experience in riding the market norms, say, support/resistance, bounce off and penetrate, break out, deviation and convergence, and most importantly, trend.
We follow market rules by honesty and rob money from uninformed market participants and donate to people who need it, personally I do not have a greedy from market but the strive for win is mainly a respect of safety margin of the fund, and for the best achivable result of a market deal making.
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