I listen to the news and watch the momentum of the market. I usually enter in with small positions in the opposite direction after an apparent big jump/drop and add to it if the pair moves in the direction opposite to what I want it to. For the most part, everything in forex is bound to rebound and the dollar cost averaging I employ by adding positions in the opposite direction helps offset losses AND increase gains on a rebound. Granted, occassionally I'm stuck with dangling positions, but no one ever said I can always win, right? I consider myself a semi successful currency trader.