Those codenames are nonsense

Really?

I was not trying to put you down, I was just saying this was a terrible trade and you decided to force it instead of following the flow!

I agree, HTF is bullish, I expect either this week or next week to attack April high and eventually yearly high, however, need to wait for the conditions to allow for it, friday rejection ruined it, now look for local lows from last week and see how price react - if it swipe and reject, perfect, thats the bottom and longs are safe again!

I appreciate the feedback, the stop out today was less about a technical failure and more about the geopolitical shock from the missile headlines—those are the variables no technical model can fully account for. I’m happy to stick to my tested process and wait for the next clean alignment. Good luck with your levels this week!

Well it's much better than getting this hyped over a 1980s Moving Average play like yours.

Well that's just US oil companies, not the entire country. The reason USD goes up with oil is the petrodollar and little to do with US being the largest producer.

One could make a case that US oil producers making more money means higher GDP for the US and the fed will hike, but the fed interest rates have more to do with employment so it's an irrelevant point and not the driver of USD appreciation.

Pro tip: those who say "Bro" are still wet behind the ears. If you want to be taken seriously don't talk like you haven't started shaving yet.

BRO, the fact remains, the USA as a nation has more oil than the two other largest oil nations combined.

Maybe single logic of largest oil nation benefiting from high oil price doesn't make sense to you. I get why.

US oil companies produce oil, not the US nation. The US is not communist so the state does not own oil production. Maybe you will learn that when you get to high school.

I love your recent cheekiness, zero fucks given!

You would think members here would be on the higher end of average intelligence considering this is a highly sophisticated profession, but reality shatter this perception time and time again!

Oil reserves speak for itself - counting west asian oil from top 10 reserves, it accounts for 47% of world wide reserves - the share is higher if we include smaller reserves part of west asia (middle east) - hence why price have more than doubled once the supply was cut!

- based on oil reserves and current oil extraction level, US have around 17 years of current output before it depletes its proven reserves : 13.6 mbpd x 30 days = 408 million barrels per month x 12 months = 4.9 billion barrels per year x 17 years = 83.2 billion barrels



Another important factor is type of oil and cost of extraction:





Also how refineries are setup, refineries cannot switch from one type to another, in fact, the sweet light crude found in west asia is a must for mixing with heavy crude found in north America, it helps creating good blends and transport - you cannot transport sticky tar through pipes unless its blended with sweet crude.

Thank you for taking time and effort to show how much more complex and nuanced the oil markets are than the superficial talking points that get bandied about. It's much appreciated knowledge.

It seems therefore that with costs of extraction and quality of crude in mind, the ones who stand to benefit most from high prices are the Middle East. And if the US is making up the shortfall then they are drawing down reserves.

I remember 2014-15 when the oil price was too low for US frackers to be profitable and banks were having to extend loans to prevent bankruptcy. There were rumors that the Saudis were trying to bust the US frackers by increasing supply and shorting oil futures to keep the price below breakeven.

Most oil wells in persian gulf (except for Iran) are duel owned by countries and big corporations, like Exxon (standard oil renamed, rockerfeller & rothschild) and Exxon's share is more than 50% (speculation, since its unknown the exact share due to secrecy and structure) - remember, they assassinated Mosaddegh because he wanted Iran to keep 50% of its oil if international companies, at that time BP (british petroleum) and Exxon helped develop Iran's oil industry, BP and Exxon did not like the offer, they assassinated him and implemented the shah dictator ship, which copied the gulf monarchy setup!

Gulf countries, including Iraq, receive their money from oil sales in federal reserves banks and get monthly allowance to spend, they are barred from developing certain industries and for whatever reason, US can put pressure by destroying their economy, including their fiat currency by restricting Dollar shipments - the wealth fund and bla bla are just ponzi structures that pretend the money is not stolen...

For this reason, I find it hard to believe that persian gulf monarchies tried to bankrupt US companies - if anything, its not their plot, they are just fronting it and scapegoat.

I asked google and here is the answer:

During the oil price crash of 2014 and 2015, OPEC did not technically "increase" production targets, but they famously refused to cut production to stabilize prices. Led by Saudi Arabia, the cartel shifted its strategy from defending high prices to defending its global market share. The goal of this "market share" strategy was to allow prices to fall far enough that higher-cost competitors—specifically U.S. shale frackers—would become unprofitable and be forced out of the market.

The strategy was only partially successful and came at a high financial cost to OPEC members.

Bankruptcies: More than 100 North American oil and gas companies filed for bankruptcy between early 2015 and late 2016.

Shale Resiliency: U.S. frackers proved more resilient than expected by drastically cutting costs and innovating. Their average break-even price dropped by over 40%, allowing many to survive even at much lower prices.

Strategy Reversal: By late 2016, facing immense fiscal pressure, OPEC abandoned this strategy and returned to production cuts to boost prices.

Me again. I heard at the time that they were shorting oil futures to make up the difference of lost revenue from low oil prices. I don't know if it's true, but something I probably heard on youtube. I also heard that US banks did the frackers a favor by extending loans that they would have otherwise foreclosed. That could be why OPEC could not accomplish their goal.

My impression is oil is artificially high by some obscure mechanism to keep those inefficient fracking industries in business. I'm sure OPEC is happy to go along with whatever the scheme is.

I am not disputing the events, just saying US government have immense leverage over gulf monarchies and any foul behavior can be corrected instantly - what most likely happened is they fronted this operation, while big players in the background had ulterior motives - remember, standard oil became a monopoly in the early 1900s from this exact method you are describing.

Probably big capital wanted to bankrupt independent companies to buy them up cheap but banks came in and rescued them, meaning the plan was not appreciated by all the elites in US, thus why saudi/OPEC had to front this operation.

In fact, OPEC benefits from having these players in the market as you mention, because it justifies higher prices, thus creating more profits for their cheap extracted oil

They actually offered him a 50/50 split, but he rejected the offer and nationalised the whole industry instead.

He was also not assassinated at all.

Who?

That makes sense about big capital wanting to bankrupt competition. That's the American way.

They don't own the companie, but The federal government owns the rights to oil and gas on federal lands and offshore.

They lease these areas to private companies for development.

They also get government revenue from taxation. And economic growth through job opportunities

The U.S. government also owns the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, a emergency stockpile of crude oil.

Which means, the United States benefits more from high oil price.

I definitely concede that the US benefits from high oil, and the benefit attracts capital investment, but it's not significant compared to the most of the world having to find dollars to buy oil.

The Anglo-Iranian oil company to Mosaddegh

Oh, ok, that makes sense.