Remember that post here were I put a buy limit at 1.2820. The price reached 1.2824 on the 200DMA and reversed softly missing my order by 4 pips. Against all the intuitions I've decided here to lower the pending level at 1.2756. Just after that the pair with no clear reason went north more than 100 pips from my initial position. In these moments you wish your initial position had been filled, but since there are no clear reasons to that move, I'd rather find why it's moving then trying to catch the train. So why that move:
1: Rebound on the 200DMA? Not likely seeing how small is the initial move after touching it.
2: Unexpected News? Not on the wires so far, at the contrary the spanish yields are getting bigger during the move. And all we are hearing is risk averse.
3:Is it the USD? Nope DX is ticking down.
I would say it's suspicious,It's surely sovereigns buying in the liquidity provided by the 200DMA a bit late though. But it can also be some insiders already knowing that Spain is about to ask for a bailout. Most important is knowing what to do when you miss the train, mainly when you were anticipating the move for weeks now as explained here. Do I have to jump in ? Surely not, never, furthermore massive headwinds are looming mainly around 1.3000-1.3050, and this move being sustained by sovereigns (BIS) will not resist any substantial shift in sentiment or even any lose lips questioning the Spanish bailout. Let it retrace and gather momentum from Techs and Specs before buying, otherwise chances are we will find ourselves among the weak hands already jumping in. But of course missing a long time anticipated move is frustrating, and frustration leads to psyche distortions like the lack of discipline.
When I review why I moved my pending to 1.2756, all the incentives were there to justify it. But sentiment driven by news flow can quickly turn out to be wrong and this is when mistakes are done, like jumping in or catching falling knives.
1: Rebound on the 200DMA? Not likely seeing how small is the initial move after touching it.
2: Unexpected News? Not on the wires so far, at the contrary the spanish yields are getting bigger during the move. And all we are hearing is risk averse.
3:Is it the USD? Nope DX is ticking down.
I would say it's suspicious,It's surely sovereigns buying in the liquidity provided by the 200DMA a bit late though. But it can also be some insiders already knowing that Spain is about to ask for a bailout. Most important is knowing what to do when you miss the train, mainly when you were anticipating the move for weeks now as explained here. Do I have to jump in ? Surely not, never, furthermore massive headwinds are looming mainly around 1.3000-1.3050, and this move being sustained by sovereigns (BIS) will not resist any substantial shift in sentiment or even any lose lips questioning the Spanish bailout. Let it retrace and gather momentum from Techs and Specs before buying, otherwise chances are we will find ourselves among the weak hands already jumping in. But of course missing a long time anticipated move is frustrating, and frustration leads to psyche distortions like the lack of discipline.
When I review why I moved my pending to 1.2756, all the incentives were there to justify it. But sentiment driven by news flow can quickly turn out to be wrong and this is when mistakes are done, like jumping in or catching falling knives.
Rien ne sert de courir il faut partir à point.