DislikedLet’s track that EurJpy pending longs commented just above. The Add-on was filled and the initial at 100.05 missed by few pips, hence the add-on at 100.70 is becoming the initial so far. But why pending that high with a buy stop while seeing the price reversing? Simply because intraday short stops are waiting above 100.80 and when they are tripped this will push the price higher (orders dynamic). The other Idea behind pending that high is that the price needs some momentum and motivated interests to get there. Below it was possible that...Ignored
The 2 orders forming one position in size were filled. But what is important is to see on the chart is how the price was limited on the downside around the 100.00. We had several incursion below that but each time they were brought back around that level. This because of the BOJ jawboning and it’s an example of a tactical trade solely based on the hypothesis of a central bank answering to another central bank. The real push hasn’t occurred yet hence I still maintain the 102.00 as target area. A mistake in positioning was made in this trade, I didn’ take into account the UsdJpy liquidity distribution, which by correlation would have shown that the limit historically accepted by the BOJ wasn’t reached yet. But I thought that the US QE was so big this time, that the market will not wait for the BOJ to intervene before selling.
This morning we had some mixed figures from Japan and the price is mainly driven by the japanese half-year closing flows. Anyway I am convinced that the BOJ will announce sooner than later easing measures of the same scope as those from the Fed and the Ecb. But the Yen is structurally a safe have currency and that’s why i don’t see it going above 102.00 with the market starting to look at the next risk-event, that is, the fiscal cliff.
Rien ne sert de courir il faut partir à point.