DislikedBob, if the top traders say that, at the time of entry, they can't be 100% sure which trades will be winners, what makes you so confident? You may be right, of course, I'm just curious to know how you can be certain.
If you're 100% certain upon entering a trade that the trade will be a winner, then you should be sizing your position to risk as much as possible of your entire account on that trade. If you're not willing to do so, then I'd suggest that you're somewhat less than 100% certain.
Anwyay, if you have a positive expectancy system, why risk the death trade at all? It can be shown mathematically that Martingale (or anti-Martingale, or in fact any system that varies bet size) fares no better than flat betting, in any activity that involves uncertainty (see my three consecutive posts in the thread, starting here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=198995). Increase in bet size is justified only when the probability of success can be shown statistically to be higher than "normal". If the Martingale MM is - or at least appears to be - the indispensable component that is making your system profitable, then I'm afraid the method behind the entries and exits is flawed.
Anyway, I sincerely wish you all the best. I'm not trying to be a naysayer, just trying to save your bankroll (and possibly others' bankrolls also).
David
[Edit:] more info on MM (among other things) in my post here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=1848426
MM in itself is not the answer.
You may also find the table at the end of the following post useful, for determining the probability of losing trade(s): http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=188593Ignored