As the stock market prepares to close later today, Yellen will deliver a speech on the new normal for monetary policy at a conference hosted by the San Francisco Federal Reserve, of which she was previously the President. The question on many lips today is whether she will be more hawkish than she was at the press conference following the FOMC meeting. This begs the question. Many people in the market understood her to be dovish, but we were and remain less sanguine. Yellen (and Fischer) have emphasized the data dependency of the Fed's course, and some investors may not be persuaded until stronger data are reported. ... (full story)