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Markets Today – Doom and Gloom
Across the financial asset and commodity price complex, oil continues to show the most volatility, crude oil benchmarks adding 2.5% or so to Tuesday’s 4% fall, reportedly on deepening pessimism about the demand and hence global growth outlook. In which respect former ECB chief Mario Draghi says the Eurozone will be in recession by year end, though he is pinning the blame for that partly on high energy prices. US equities are though having a good last couple of hours of NYSE trading, recouping most of their morning fall to be little changed on the day. The big USD is also fairly flat but where commodity linked ... (full story)
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Japanese Yen futures are down for the third straight session. Bob Iaccino has more.
The 0.3% drop in retail sales in September confirms a continued weak consumption environment for goods. The outlook for retail is slowly improving, but the turning point is hard ...
Thank you, Stacey, and thank you to the organizers for a thought-provoking conference. Provoking thought and discussion are very fitting ways to mark the centenary of the Division of Research and Statistics (R&S). In keeping with the conference theme, I have organized my remarks around the past, present, and future of R&S. My reflection on the past, while idiosyncratic, is also, I believe, indicative of a through line that characterizes the division historically. For me, that past begins in 1983, when I came to the Board as a newly minted college graduate to be a research assistant (RA) in the Government Finance Section, now known as Fiscal Analysis. One of our primary tasks was to keep track of the volatile, and somewhat unpredictable, fluctuations in tax receipts. The daily numbers were transmitted not by computer, but by telephone. Other data retrieval required RAs to go to the Treasury directly in the luxurious conveyance of a D.C. taxicab, reimbursed by the Board—a little perk that, as it happened, never came my way. In our section, though, it was a lot of time on the phone, and the two economists I worked with, Al Teplin and Wolf Ramm, would take down the numbers and pass them to me. post: FED VICE CHAIR JEFFERSON DOES NOT COMMENT ON CURRENT ECONOMIC OR POLICY OUTLOOK IN CLOSING REMARKS TO STATISTICS CONFERENCE JEFFERSON: HIGH UNCERTAINTY COULD JUSTIFY AGGRESSIVE POLICY RESPONSE IF INFLATION EXPECTATIONS THREATENED TO BECOME UNANCHORED
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Opinions on Economic and Financial Developments Economic Developments • Japan's economy has recovered moderately and is likely to continue to do so. However, there remain extremely high uncertainties surrounding economic activity and prices. • Upside and downside risks to the outlook for Japan's economy have continued to be fairly high. In particular, uncertainties regarding the U.S. economy have remained despite heightened expectations for a soft landing, and thus close monitoring is warranted on the impact of the economic developments. • Although households' spending behavior has become more defensive due to price rises, private consumption has been resilient, supported by expectations for wage increases and firms' various measures to promote sales. In order to achieve sustained wage increases and a virtuous cycle of growth and distribution, it is necessary that firms' earning power strengthen -- particularly for small and medium-sized firms, which have lagged behind in reforms -- and that their capacity to raise wages increase. Attention is warranted on the extent to which listed firms' earnings estimates for fiscal 2023 will be revised upward in their announcements of financial results for the first half of the fiscal year and whether the rises in earnings will have increasingly positive effects on small and medium-sized firms post: BoJ Summary Of Opinions, October MPM: One Mbr Said Need To Continue With Easing Patiently - One MbrSaid Still Distance To 2% Goal - One Mbr Said High Uncertainty Means Must Take Steps To Make YCC More Flexible - One Mbr Said Unexpectedly Strong Pressure From Rising US Yields post: BoJ Summary Of Opinions, October MPM: One Member Said Chance Of Hitting Inflation Goal Is Rising - One Member Said BoJ Must Gradually Adjust Degree Of Monetary Easing - One Member Said Important To Communicate Need To Prepare For A World When Interest Rates Turn Positive
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- Posted: Nov 8, 2023 6:41pm
- Submitted by:Category: Fundamental AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 2,510
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