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Eurozone retail sales continued to trend down in September
The 0.3% drop in retail sales in September confirms a continued weak consumption environment for goods. The outlook for retail is slowly improving, but the turning point is hard to determine. For GDP, this adds to our view of slightly negative growth for the fourth quarter and first quarter of next year. Retail contributed negatively to 3Q GDP – which was down by -0.1% - with three months of declining trade volumes. This confirms a trend ongoing since late 2021, which is in part induced by weaker overall demand but also to a degree by overspending on goods in 2020 and early 2021. This effect has largely been ... (full story)
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Thank you, Stacey, and thank you to the organizers for a thought-provoking conference. Provoking thought and discussion are very fitting ways to mark the centenary of the Division of Research and Statistics (R&S). In keeping with the conference theme, I have organized my remarks around the past, present, and future of R&S. My reflection on the past, while idiosyncratic, is also, I believe, indicative of a through line that characterizes the division historically. For me, that past begins in 1983, when I came to the Board as a newly minted college graduate to be a research assistant (RA) in the Government Finance Section, now known as Fiscal Analysis. One of our primary tasks was to keep track of the volatile, and somewhat unpredictable, fluctuations in tax receipts. The daily numbers were transmitted not by computer, but by telephone. Other data retrieval required RAs to go to the Treasury directly in the luxurious conveyance of a D.C. taxicab, reimbursed by the Board—a little perk that, as it happened, never came my way. In our section, though, it was a lot of time on the phone, and the two economists I worked with, Al Teplin and Wolf Ramm, would take down the numbers and pass them to me. post: FED VICE CHAIR JEFFERSON DOES NOT COMMENT ON CURRENT ECONOMIC OR POLICY OUTLOOK IN CLOSING REMARKS TO STATISTICS CONFERENCE JEFFERSON: HIGH UNCERTAINTY COULD JUSTIFY AGGRESSIVE POLICY RESPONSE IF INFLATION EXPECTATIONS THREATENED TO BECOME UNANCHORED
Israel’s military offensive in Gaza has no time limits to achieve the objective of destroying Hamas, according to a top member of the country’s war cabinet. “There are no ...
Pan-European market infrastructure Euronext today published its results for the third quarter of 2023. FX trading reported €6.4 million of revenue in Q3 2023, down 11.4% from the ...
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Japanese Yen futures are down for the third straight session. Bob Iaccino has more.
Across the financial asset and commodity price complex, oil continues to show the most volatility, crude oil benchmarks adding 2.5% or so to Tuesday’s 4% fall, reportedly on ...
Opinions on Economic and Financial Developments Economic Developments • Japan's economy has recovered moderately and is likely to continue to do so. However, there remain extremely high uncertainties surrounding economic activity and prices. • Upside and downside risks to the outlook for Japan's economy have continued to be fairly high. In particular, uncertainties regarding the U.S. economy have remained despite heightened expectations for a soft landing, and thus close monitoring is warranted on the impact of the economic developments. • Although households' spending behavior has become more defensive due to price rises, private consumption has been resilient, supported by expectations for wage increases and firms' various measures to promote sales. In order to achieve sustained wage increases and a virtuous cycle of growth and distribution, it is necessary that firms' earning power strengthen -- particularly for small and medium-sized firms, which have lagged behind in reforms -- and that their capacity to raise wages increase. Attention is warranted on the extent to which listed firms' earnings estimates for fiscal 2023 will be revised upward in their announcements of financial results for the first half of the fiscal year and whether the rises in earnings will have increasingly positive effects on small and medium-sized firms post: BoJ Summary Of Opinions, October MPM: One Mbr Said Need To Continue With Easing Patiently - One MbrSaid Still Distance To 2% Goal - One Mbr Said High Uncertainty Means Must Take Steps To Make YCC More Flexible - One Mbr Said Unexpectedly Strong Pressure From Rising US Yields post: BoJ Summary Of Opinions, October MPM: One Member Said Chance Of Hitting Inflation Goal Is Rising - One Member Said BoJ Must Gradually Adjust Degree Of Monetary Easing - One Member Said Important To Communicate Need To Prepare For A World When Interest Rates Turn Positive
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- Posted: Nov 8, 2023 5:13pm
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