Personal income increased $91.2 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in May, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (table 3 and table 5). Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $86.7 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $18.9 billion (0.1 percent). The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent (table 9). Real DPI increased 0.3 percent in May and real PCE decreased by less than 0.1 percent; goods decreased 0.4 percent and ... (full story)

One of The Fed's favorite inflation indicators - Core PCE Deflator - rose 4.6% YoY (slightly cooler than the 4.7% exp but still 'stuck' at very high levels). Headline PCE fell back below 4.00% (3.8%) for the first time since April 2021. Even more focused, is the Fed's view on Services inflation ex-Shelter, and the PCE-equivalent shows that is very much stuck at high levels. Personal Income and Spending were both expected to rise on a MoM basis and did but while incomes rose more than expected, spending rose less (+0.4% vs +0.3% exp and +0.1% vs +0.2% exp respectively). YoY Spending growth slowed while YoY Income ... (full story)