Australia’s jobless rate could soar to around 12% and the economy contract 5% in the second quarter -- and a further fall in the three months after that would bring the fastest decline in activity since World War II, according to National Australia Bank Ltd. “The nature of this shock is of course very different to traditional recessions -- in particular, there is hardly any lag between falling output and employment,” Alan Oster, chief economist at NAB, said in a research note Friday. He estimates gross domestic product would contract by 3% in 2020, but rebound to 3.5% the following year. Unemployment is likely to ... (full story)