Election year historical data is a good base for identifying the range of outcomes for this year as 2020 is an election year. The data below shows the historical data, which may be relevant to how 2020 might shape up. Given the many unknowns in 2020 (impeachment, trade war truce, economy and the outcome of the election itself), this year is especially unpredictable. Let’s examine the historical record of the markets in presidential election years. {image} The S&P 500 has had a positive return in 19 of the last 23 election years since 1928 (graph A) or 83% of the time. Let’s look at the negative years for the S&P ... (full story)