Assuming consumers remain even moderately confident over the next few months, holiday sales are on track for an above-average year. We forecast that retailers will ring up $733.7 billion in sales, good for growth of 4.6% over last year. This would outperform the average holiday sales growth of 3.8% since 2010, but this forecast is not as strong as it would appear due to the low-base effects from last year. In other words, last year's sales were so poor that even a modest improvement in holiday retail spending would look strong in year-over-year terms. Retail is in a comfortable place, but peak growth is likely in the ... (full story)