One of the most robust facts in economic cycles is that a yield curve inversion has occurred within two years of every U.S. recession since at least 1960. This phenomenon occurs when the yield of a shorter-maturity bond exceeds the yield of a longer-maturity bond, and it is widely considered one of the best leading indicators of U.S. recessions. Its predictive power has led the financial and economic communities to closely follow inversions. Starting in June, the monthly spread between the 10-year and three-month Treasuries became negative, and the monthly yield spread has not returned to its usual positive territory ... (full story)