We have changed our view on the cash rate, factoring in an additional rate cut in February to take the cash rate to 0.5%, at which point the Reserve Bank has suggested it would signal its intentions on unconventional policy. We still expect the next cut to be in November, with our forecast of a more drawn-out easing of policy reflecting the cautious nature of Governor Lowe, where the Board has signalled an “accumulation of additional evidence” was required to cut rates again. That said, we are very aware the Bank could cut as soon as October if there was further weakness in the labour market revealed next week. The ... (full story)