The US 10y/2y yield curve has stopped playing around and has become a little more significantly inverted (-2bp) after last Friday's JH speech and China/US escalation. Based on the average of the past five major inversions over the past 40 years (1978, 1989, 1998, 2000 and 2005), the curve may stay inverted until mid-2020. This is often good news for the dollar, and the historical patterns suggests 2%+ upside in the DXY index by October In the slightly longer term, an inverted curve is usually bad news for the Antipodean currencies (NZD, AUD) – for more on what usually happens, see FX: what usually happens after US ... (full story)