This is shown in the chart below: The bottom line, at least to Morgan Stanley, is that "it is very hard to argue mid cycle from the real data we are seeing, the fact that the unemployment rate is well below NAIRU, and profit margins and growth are outright declining on a y/y basis for the majority of companies, both public and private." It is not just the bank's bearish assessment that leads it to conclude that Powell's "mid-cycle" assessment is wrong: the market evidence is also compelling that "we are not mid cycle, or even late cycle, but rather, end of cycle", according to Wilson, who notes that over the past ... (full story)