Some positive signals from July retail sales and New York Fed Empire index helped to partly cast out fears of a US recession and stabilise equity markets yesterday. As highlighted by our US economist, we are reluctant to attach a high probability of an imminent recession in the US, despite the recent inversion in the yield curve. On the trade side, President Trump confirmed that he has a call scheduled “very soon” with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Despite the two parties still appearing quite far from reaching a trade deal, the news may prompt further stabilisation in risk sentiment today. In turn, we expect a broadly ... (full story)