The rules of interpretation that apply to the payroll reports also apply to other data series like retail sales. The monthly changes tend to be noisy. Even during the best of times there might be a month way off trend. On the other end, during the worst of times there will be the stray good month. What matters is the balance continuing in each direction – more of the good vs. more of the bad. Or when what seems to be a good month is less good than it used to be. Retail sales had managed nearly 6% year-over-year (unadjusted) growth back in the month of April 2019. It came during the mini-outbreak of green shoot ... (full story)