We are bringing forward the timing of our forecast for the next cut in the overnight cash rate by the RBA from November to October. By October, we expect that the path of the unemployment rate will be sufficiently contrary to the RBA’s plans that they will have appropriate justification to ease policy a little earlier than we had previously expected. We recognise that September is also likely to be a “live” meeting but expect the Board will wait for more data, such as the June quarter national accounts, before moving again. We are also revising down our terminal rate forecast from the 0.75% we forecast on May 24 to ... (full story)