A key recession tracker just hit its highest level since 2009, sending a signal that an economic downturn may be looming on the horizon. The New York Federal Reserve's probability model, which predicts the probability of a US recession in the next 12 months, delivered a reading of 32.9% for June. That's could mean tough times ahead, considering the measure has breached the 30% threshold before every recession since 1960. It sat at a precarious 28% in May. This development comes on the heels of the US's 10-year economic expansion recently becoming the longest on record. While duration is not what ends expansions, ... (full story)