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Payrolls Like GDP: Headlines Good, Underneath Really, Really Not

From alhambrapartners.com

If the unemployment rate reaches zero and wages still don’t explode higher, the economy falls off, will Economists, central bankers, and the media stop relying on this one statistic for overall economic interpretation? You can be reasonably excited when the unemployment rate falls below 5%, as it did four years ago. Three point six, however, that’s something else entirely. We’ve long since moved into the range where there should be no doubts. On this typically absurd payroll Friday, the BLS reports two headline numbers which have made the front pages. The Establishment Survey increased by 263k in the month of April ... (full story)

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  • Category: Fundamental Analysis