The Fed is in blackout ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, so it’s a bit quiet in monetary policy-land. On the non-recession watch, core durable goods orders rose in March: That’s another ding to the recession story. And, to be fair, a ding to the slowdown story as well. So far, this isn’t even shaping up to 2015-16 standards, raising the question of whether the soft landing story is really in play yet? That’s something I am watching closely; stable monetary policy assumes economic deceleration in the months ahead. Stronger-than-expected growth would cause us to question that outlook. Initial unemployment claims ... (full story)