Our latest rough-and-ready estimates of the Brexit probabilities What will happen over the next two weeks is highly uncertain, but we think a softer form of Brexit is still narrowly the most likely option, closely followed by a second referendum. However, the odds of 'no deal' and a general election appear to have climbed. But let's take a quick look at how each scenario could happen - although the reality is many scenarios could easily materialise, as we edge closer to the 12 April deadline.In a move that had been rumoured for several days, prime minister Theresa May laid her final card on the table on Wednesday in ... (full story)