The US yield curve has now inverted with three-month yields now sitting above 10-year yields for the first time since 2007. Every time that’s occurred over the past 50 years a US recession has soon followed. It’s little wonder why recent developments have triggered renewed debate as to whether the curve inversion means the next recession is imminent. However, despite such a good track record as a predictor of economic downturns, there’s no shortage of analysts out there who believe this time may be different. Richard Franulovich, Westpac bank’s New York-based Head of FX Strategy, is among that group. He’s not ... (full story)