As is usually the case, overnight implied volatility has spiked ahead of the central bank meeting, irrespective of the fact that most expect rates to remain unchanged at 1.75%. Still, it remains prudent to assume volatility could spike in the event of new or unexpected information. Summary of February OCR meeting: • OCR expected to remain at 1.75% trough to 2019 and 2020 • Next OCR move could be up or down • Low interest rates and government spending to support growth pick-up over 2019 • CPI expected to rise to around the 2% mid-point target – but there are upside and downside risks to this outlook. • OCR to remain ... (full story)